Friday 26th of April

The Minimalist Portfolio, which focuses on significant macro trends, continues outperforming. Higher for longer Inflation remains a key theme that we will explore more in the portfolio section.

The commercial financial media has been holding tight to what they know best, perhaps not realizing that familiarity doesn't always breed success. 

Take a look at the data:

A) Tech (XLK) has stumbled, shedding -6.3% just last week, marking a broader decline of -3.8% over the past three months.

B) Even Goldman Sachs's High Retail Sentiment Basket hasn't been immune, posting a sobering -8.9% loss over the same three-month period.

C) And then there are the Terrible Twos, AAPL, and TSLA, once the darlings of the market, now weighed down by the gravity of their overvaluation.

It doesn’t take much imagination why everybody is still hoping for rate cuts with this performance in their portfolio. However, when you look at the data, it’s clear we won’t get those rate cuts. If we do end up getting rate cuts, we will perform even better as inflation will go up even more.

Before we discuss our portfolio, let’s examine the key growth and inflation metrics in more detail! 

Growth

As stated before, the big theme of these next quarters is higher inflation for longer but mixed growth signals. This week, the Durable Goods data provided another clear confirmation of this fact.

The Headline number grew 2.6% monthly but decelerated to 1.3% year-on-year while Private Aircraft & Parts surged by 30.6% monthly.

The US Durable Goods chart below paints the unexciting picture quite clearly.

Inflation

For those looking to catch big moves this is where it is at. Inflation is going up hard. While we are not a fan of this in daily life, your positioning is a great opportunity.

Just take a look at these numbers:

1. CRB Commodities Index was +0.1% to +12.3% in the last 3 months

2. CRB Foodstuffs Index inflated another +0.9% last week to +16.1% in the last 3 months

3. Oil (WTI) finally corrected -2.9% last week to +13.9% in the last 3 months

4. Copper inflated another +5.6% last week to +18.8% in the last 3 months

5. Silver inflated +1.8% last week to +27.0% in the last 3 months

6. Cocoa inflated +9.4% last week to +150.1% in the last 3 months

7. Coffee inflated +3.2% last week to +25.2% in the last 3 months

Portfolio
Let’s get into how to position ourselves to outperform the market with our Minimalist Portfolio.

As discussed at length above, higher for longer in terms of inflation is the play people are starting to catch up to slowly. For this reason, we want to build on this theme!

For this, we want to add the US Dollar and Silver to the portfolio. We were lucky enough to get a healthy correction in these, so today is the time to add them.

Of course, we must exit two positions, as the rule of The Minimalist Portfolio is to keep the portfolio to a maximum of 10 positions. We will exit Japan and the Healthcare sector, as these are just going sideways.

The S&P 500 is up 6.9%, while The Minimalist Portfolio is up 13.67%! 

Let’s get into our active positions!

Energy Sector (XLE) -0.36% Since Entry Fri 19 Feb 2024

As described above, this sector goes up along with inflation regardless of growth. It’s the only true all-weather inflation sector out there. 

US Insurance (IAK) +12.9% YTD

Investing in the insurance sector provides exposure to a stable industry that can withstand a decline in growth while delivering an excellent inflation hedge.

EXIT Healthcare (XLV) +2.9% YTD
Enter US Dollar Index (DXY)

Due to the relative strength of the US economy and high-interest rates that might even increase, this is a great place to be.

 WTI OIL +9.8% Since Entry Fri 23 Feb 2024

While the U.S. Government declares victory on inflation, we will keep buying inflation. The Global Industrial and manufacturing Cycle bottomed in December 2023 and remains Bullish for oil.

Japan (NIKKEI225) +13.4% YTD
Enter SILVER (SLV)

Silver is an excellent addition to the portfolio to build on the inflation theme.

India (INDA) +7.13% YTD

The difference in real growth between India and the median G20 economy is set to reaccelerate in 2Q24, while India is already the global growth leader through 2024.

Gold 33% YTD

Gold has been solid historically in the given macro environment, especially relative to the S&P500. It’s a true classic for holding up as a haven asset in higher-volatility environments.

Germany (DAX) 2.38% Since Entry Fri 19^th of April

This week, we got a German Business Expectations index, which accelerated to the highest level since May 2023. Great place to be.

China (SSE) +1.98% Since Entry Fri 8th of March 2024

China has strongly accelerating Cyclical Data. Including China to the portfolio increases upside while also making sure we include global diversification.

Bitcoin (BTC) +44.53% YTD

Bitcoin is always a momentum play that is starting. I’m not a crypto expert, nor am I a long-term holder, but when the excitement about another bull market starts, it makes more noise and draws more amateur investors in than anything else. This makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy and something we want to participate in.

I hope you enjoyed this edition of The Minimalist Portfolio. I’m grateful you’re here from the start, and I’m looking forward to outperforming you together! 

All the best,

Philippe.